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November 4, 2026

Market News

Huron, Oxnard, and early Yuma volume are finally starting to take some
pressure off Salinas and Santa Maria, but we are still a couple of weeks away
from having the full desert program's volume behind us. Major processors
are expected to have their salad plants fully fired up around November 16,
which should bring a more meaningful increase in volume and consistency.
For now, iceberg and romaine markets are easing, green leaf is still tight, and
we are starting to see the first signs that the worst of the row-crop squeeze
is behind us.
Strawberries are unfortunately moving in the opposite direction.
California continues to struggle after the recent stretch of heat followed by
rain. Cull rates have been running as high as 50% in some areas, and much
of the fruit being harvested simply does not have the shelf life needed for
longer transit.
Santa Maria is nearing the end of its season, with very little fruit making it
into the fresh market. Oxnard is still cleaning up after the weather and
waiting for the next flush of undamaged fruit to color.
Normally, Central Mexico and Baja would be starting to take some pressure
off California by now, but those regions have also been slowed by rain and
delayed production. Some Mexican volume is beginning to move through
Texas, but supplies remain limited.
That keeps strawberries firmly in a demand-exceeds-supply situation, with
very little open-market fruit available and shippers focused heavily on
contracts and existing commitments.
Melons are also moving through a seasonal handoff.
Arizona cantaloupe production is underway, but yields are running below the
summer California deal. Recent rain around Yuma slowed harvests, and the
crop is concentrated mainly in 9- and 12-count fruit, with jumbo sizes
especially limited.
The Arizona season will begin winding down over the next few weeks just as
Mexico and Central American imports start coming into play. Honeydew
supplies are in a better position, with steady availability today and Mexican
production gradually increasing.
The bigger story with melons is timing. We are working through the final
domestic desert supplies while waiting for Mexico and imports to carry more
of the load, which should keep cantaloupe markets firm through the rest of
November.
Avocados remain the market to watch most closely.
Harvesting in Michoacán is still largely suspended, and there is still no clear
indication of when normal operations will resume. Jalisco continues
harvesting, but its volume is not enough to replace what the U.S. normally
receives from Michoacán.
The cushion we had a week ago is also getting smaller. U.S. avocado
inventories have fallen about 15%, from 49.9 million pounds to 42.4 million
pounds, with the entire decline coming from Mexican-origin fruit.
That does not mean the market is out of avocados today, but the pipeline is
clearly getting tighter.
Even when normal harvesting resumes, there will be a delay before that fruit
reaches customers. It still has to be harvested, packed, inspected,
transported, and in many cases conditioned before it is ready to ship.
For now, pricing is expected to remain elevated while the industry works
through the interruption and rebuilds inventory.
This week brings some much-needed relief on lettuce, but the market is still
far from quiet. Strawberries remain extremely tight, melons are working
through their seasonal handoff, and every additional day of disruption in
Michoacán keeps pressure on the avocado market.

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